Politics notwithstanding, US energy standards are making way for LED lighting in the home.
The incandescent light bulb continues its long exit, creating shelf space and mindshare for LED lighting in 2014. On January 1, standards from the Energy Independence and Security Act effectively banned manufacture and import of traditional 40W and 60W bulbs, as we discussed recently.
Even though the news media have pumped out many stories about the ban, I'm not convinced that American shoppers are playing close attention. This phase of the ban snuck up on a lot of people. An Osram Sylvania survey, conducted in November 2013, showed that 40 percent of the respondents hadn't heard of the latest ban.
It's not likely that we'll see the kind of hoarding that we did when the 100W bulbs were dropped from the market. At that time, CFLs were slow to brighten and rarely met the needs for area lighting. People liked their big, hot lights in the same way that they preferred their five-gallon flush toilets.
Conservatives, to no one's surprise, aren't keen on the ban. The New American sees something sinister in the ban, claiming that Philips Electronics (parent company of this site's sponsor) had already planned to discontinue production of incandescent bulbs and saw the ban as a way to reduce competition even further. Further, GE shuttered a US facility, eliminating 200 jobs, while other bulb manufacturing shifted to China.
In an end-around reminiscent of the SUV mileage exemption, New Jersey light bulb manufacturer Newcandescent has modified rough-service bulbs, which are exempt from the ban, and offers familiar-looking bulbs ranging from 25W to 300W. "The Legal Light Bulb" is manufactured in the US of A and meets the Department of Energy efficiency requirements.
The commentary from the right about LED lighting has been muted, but generally favorable. We haven't heard Glenn Beck threaten to fire employees who purchase LED bulbs for their offices, unlike his fury at fluorescents.
American Thinker brings it all together by tying the bulb ban to the failed launch of Obamacare.
And in 2014
We're not likely to see a big bump in LED sales until later in 2014. Lowe's and other retailers report that they have current inventory to last for another six months.
The 2012 McKinsey Report on the global LED market predicts that 2015 will be the breakthrough year when LED lamps become price-competitive with CFLs. By decade's end, LED bulbs could have 70 percent of the lighting market.
Predictions for new home construction in the US are modest for the coming year, with banks and builders still cautious after a five-year climb up from the 2008 crash. Some areas, such as Texas and the Southwest, look to have better than average growth.
Home centers will continue to remind consumers of the changes and show alternatives.
So, residential LED lighting has its best years ahead of it. The new year will be a good one as the competition narrows and prices come closer into line with consumers' expectations. The biggest impediment to growth will be the spare bulbs in cellar cupboards. As the old bulbs are used up and LED prices continue to fall, we'll be seeing more and more solid-state lighting in American homes. 2014 is the end of the beginning.
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